The final push for a place in next year’s World Cup officially began on Thursday. You may think that the qualifying teams would be set by now. Surprisingly, only one spot has been secured at least mathematically. Here’s what we learned and could unfold after Tuesday’s fixtures in the South American qualifiers.

Argentina and Uruguay – The reigning World Champions secured a key win against Uruguay on Friday. Despite only winning by one goal, the result practically secures a spot in Next year’s World Cup. Mathematically speaking, however, a win on Tuesday would make that a reality. While Brazil is not in its best version, Raphina’s momentum could prolong Argentina’s qualification until June.

In addition, this international window gave Argentina a taste of life without Messi. Unfortunately, a last-minute injury forced him to drop out of the squad for this international window. Looks like Father Time finally proved that Messi was human after all. Luckily, the team seems to be covered at least in terms of talent. Players like Enzo Fernandez, Thiago Almada, and Simeone could cover the position well. While there will be nobody like Messi, Argentina must find a way to live with his absence in the immediate future.

Uruguay on the other hand, continues in its rebuilding process. They hold a comfortable point cushion ahead of the remaining fixtures so the defeat to Argentina was within their budget. But they cannot drop any more points moving forward. They have the fixture against Bolivia on Tuesday to bounce back from the defeat against Argentina.

Paraguay and Chile – “Two sides of the same coin” perfectly describes the fixture between the two teams. Paraguay showcased the ongoing comeback since Gustavo Alfaro took over. The same squad that began the process near the bottom places of the qualifiers is now in poll position to secure one of the direct qualification spots. Their ongoing momentum showcases that at times the manager can influence a team’s performance. The upcoming fixture against Colombia can make things interesting. If they win they could complicate things for the upper half of the table. A defeat could be a setback but the point cushion leaves them with enough room to bounce back in June.

Chile is a case study for a more in-depth analysis soon. Their downfall is just difficult to understand to some extent, but one name could provide a glance at the problem. It’s hard to believe that they too are in a rebuilding process, but have failed to make the transition. The defeat against Paraguay may have sealed their fate in this qualifiers, but a win against Ecuador on Tuesday could reignite one last push in a nearly impossible comeback attempt.

Ecuador and Venezuela – “La Tri” arrived with good momentum. Playing at home against a Venezuelan side with an urgency to gain back momentum made the game one-sided on paper. But Ecuador tends to be unpredictable at times so predictions were reserved. In the end, Ecuador dominated from start to finish. Caicedo, Estupiñan, Valencia, and Galindez secured another win to get closer to a 5th World Cup appearance. However, I hope that the team evaluates the possibility of changing the designated penalty kicker moving forward. The win left Venezuela with the urgency to win at least 3 of their remaining games if they want to keep their qualification hopes alive. Peru’s win against Bolivia has them in a compromising spot and they can’t lose their fixture against them on Tuesday. 

Life works in mysterious ways at times. Ecuador Ironically faces Chile on Tuesday and could literally “Kill two birds with one stone”. A win not only ends qualification hopes for Chile, but it redeems Ecuador from an unfair 3-point deduction when the qualifiers started. It’s ironic how the team that you tried to discredit could be the team that ends your World Cup dream months later. 

Colombia and Brazil- It’s safe to say that nothing has been the same for Colombia after the defeat in last year’s Copa America Final. Many thought that the loss would help them come back stronger, but they raised more questions than answers with each performance. Losing to Brazil might not have immediate consequences given the gap with the teams that follow them. But if they continue to drop points, their best hope is that the others don’t catch up. Brazil you ask? Despite not being their best for a while now, it looks like it will be enough to see them in yet another World Cup. 

Peru and Bolivia – Two nations battling for the playoff spot in the confederation. Bolivia’s surprising start in the qualifiers made the possibility of a World Cup appearance a reality. Unfortunately, they have lost that momentum in recent games. Given that this fixture had direct implications, losing was not an option. Unfortunately, Peru had more determination and got a key win. While Bolivia still holds on to the qualifying spot, they no longer depend on themselves to qualify. No matter what happens they can’t lose any points moving forward and hope that Peru doesn’t win any of their remaining games. Peru holds all the cards now, only time will tell if they capitalized on their opportunity in the end.

While each game has its storyline, it’s safe to say that we could see both the first qualified and the first eliminated team in the confederation by Tuesday night. But outcomes remain reserved for now.